Written by Gitau wa Kung’u (profgitauwakungu@gmail.com).
The former Kigumo MP, minister for Nairobi Metropolitan chairperson of Tana River Development Authority (TARDA), philanthropist and renowned businessman Hon Jamleck Kamau is among the competitors aspiring to take over Murang’as gubernatorial office after the exeunt of the incumbent HE Mwangi wa Iria. He is vying with the Jubilee ticket under the Azimio umbrella.
The odds for his becoming the next governor in a region where the largest population supports UDA are however higher than his competitors who are allied to Kenya Kwanza and Mwangi wa Iria’s Usawa Party.
These include UDA’s Dr. Irungu Kang’ata, Farmer’s Party Hon Irungu Nyakera, Democratic Party’s Hon Wairagu wa Maai, Safina Party’s Dr. Moses Mwangi and Usawa Party’s Hon Joseph Mbai.
Three of his closest competitors according to popular poll surveys like Mizani Africa and Infortrak are not only all in the auspice of Kenya Kwanza but they also come from Murang’a North region.
Both Dr. Kang’ata and Hon Wairagu come from Kiharu while Hon Irungu Nyakera comes from Mathioya. Dr. Moses, Hon Mbai and Hon Jamleck all come from Murang’a South region.
Taking into account that Hon Jamleck’s political influence spreads across the region and dominates in Murang’a South even with Dr. Moses and Hon Mbai’s factor, his Kenya Kwanza competitors have a considerable following in Murang’a North each.
Murang’a South region, which is Hon Jamleck’s stronghold, boasts of commanding more than half of the total county’s voter population. In fact, Murang’a South region (Kigumo, Maragwa, Kandara & Gatanga) registered 12, 947 while Murang’a North region (Kangema, Mathioya, Kiharu) registered 9, 135 new voters according to an analysis of IEBC’s 2021 new voter registration data.
All the three Kenya Kwanza allied gubernatorial candidates (UDA’s, Farmers Party and D.P.’s) will share the Murang’a North voting bloc that they regard as their stronghold, each on his own. Hon Jamleck will end up grasping slightly less if not almost the same number of votes as each of them in Murang’a North while he will beat each of them with a wide vote margin in his Murang’a South stronghold.
Dr. Moses hails from Maragua, Hon Mbai from Gatanga and Hon Jamleck from Kigumo. Dr. Moses’ commands around 10% of total votes in Murang’a South cast in the last 4 elections he has been aspiring for C021 governor. Hon Mbai is a new entrant in the race is will definitely get less than Dr. Moses’.
Both Dr. Moses and Hon Mbai will most likely garner less than 14% of the 380,000+ Murang’a South voting bloc. Hon Jamleck will harvest more than 48% of Murang’a South’s votes while Dr Irungu Kang’ata will garner around 24%. Both former PS’s Nyakera and Wairagu will garner less than 12% of the total votes.
Murang’a North region contributed around 42% of the county’s total votes cast in 2017 general election ie around 251, 000. If they divide among themselves these votes and in a presumption that Hon Jamleck garners only 20% (50,000) of the lot and one of them garners half of the votes (take Dr. Kang’ata) he would harvest at least 125,600 votes.
In the presumption that Dr. Kang’ata harvests half of Murang’a North votes (take around 130,000) and he gets 24% of Murang’a South region (take around 92,000) he would garner around 220, 000 votes.
That would mean Hon Jamleck Kamau will garner more than 232,000 votes and beat UDA’s Dr. Irungu Kang’ata. In Murang’a County, voter turnout is likely to reduce but with a negligible margin owing to the fact that it's a politically very active area.
Thus will Kenya Kwanza lose the Murang’a gubernatorial seat to Azimio in a region it regards UDA (Kenya Kwanza) stronghold.
The KK coalition has to sacrifice either Nyakera or both Nyakera and Wairagu and promise them top government jobs (if at all KK makes the next government) to secure the Murang’a gubernatorial seat. Otherwise it shall be the case of “mbogo nyingi itiri thathi.” The English often say too many cooks spoil the broth, don’t they?
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